全傑科技 - @RISK for Excel

可在Excel試算表內做風險分析,使用蒙地卡羅(Monte-Carlo)分析其不確定性,包含30餘種的不同的分配函數,有指數,常態分配等.
美商寶橋公司P&G在全球廣泛使用@RISK及PrecisionTree,寶橋向來以行銷策略見長,
目前P&G廣泛的使用@RISK軟體,做"全球投資範圍決策",應用範圍包括新的產品,產品線的延長,地區的擴充,進入新的國家內,製造計劃,和生產位置等.

有下列三種版本.
@RISK Standard
@RISK Prof 含BestFit,Goal Seek, Stress Analysis,Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
@RISK Industrial 含RISK Optimizer,RISK Accelerator

Bob Hunt是P&G的財務投資分析顧問, "事實上我們公司已訓練超過一千人會使用@RISK "寶鹼的Bob Hunt說, ,而且現在他正進行另一個決策工具PrecisionTree 。

Bob並把@RISK及PrecisionTree介紹給中國和日本P&G財務經理 P&G自從1993接觸@RISK以後, Bob Hunt首先用@RISK來決定製造地點的模型預測。

當時公司也正同時在評估其他一些地點, 考慮的因素,不僅考慮不確定資本花費,及工廠地點成本,匯率之變動。

P&G自那時起就仰賴@RISK為它的"全球投資範圍決策"做分析.

比較最近Bob Hunt和他的同事在使用另一套軟體PrecisionTree, 它非常吸引人的地方是它對複雜價值的決策能力, 通常包括多重順序的決定步驟.

他們發現PrecisionTree在評估 "真實的選擇Real options" 方面特別有其價值做複雜決策時 我們正考慮PrecisionTree用於財務的選擇計算分析, 且我們發現不僅能很簡單的解決了複雜多重順序的決策,而且它還可以多樣化, 在多樣價值的不確定是風險中, PrecisionTree的是唯一能正確決定的工具。

去年春天,Bob Hunt測試PrecisionTree結果非常成功之後寶鹼現在於世界的部門推動使用PrecisionTree。各單位正於評估投資方面 PrecisionTree幫助他們做比較好的決定和選擇 ,Bob Hunt說,"PrecisionTree對我們公司真的是貢獻匪淺。

The Future in Your Spreadsheet

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK^®, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values.  Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.

» @RISK in project management
» @RISK in Six Sigma

@RISK videos

New @RISK 7.0 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features. Enhanced model-sharing, improved reporting, and sophisticated new analyses make @RISK 7 the only risk analysis tool you’ll need.

Efficient Frontier Analysis 
Especially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk. This analysis is included with RISKOptimizer, the optimization component of @RISK available in the Industrial edition.

Copulas 
Also useful in the financial community, copulas provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that give the user more control over the correlation pattern.

@RISK Data Viewer 
Allows you to display any spreadsheet data, not just simulation results, using all @RISK charts and graphing options.

Share @RISK Graphs and Models with Non-@RISK Users 
Graphically share input distributions and simulation results with those who do not have @RISK installed on their computers using new Thumbnail graphs. They can simply open your workbook and see @RISK graphs attached to the cells they describe -- no special viewer required!

Customized Excel Reports 
New custom Excel reports in @RISK enable you to create exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing.

Auto-Updating 
Users can choose to receive automatic notification of future updates from within @RISK, with a one-click installation system.