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@RISK for Excel 8
風險分析軟體
Risk Analysis ; Monte Carlo Simulation for Your Spreadsheet!
軟體代號:818
瀏覽次數:15636
Windows8
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Features
Monte Carlo Simulation for Your Spreadsheet! @RISK is the Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel®. As an add-in, @RISK becomes seamlessly integrated - via a new toolbar and functions - with your spreadsheet, adding Risk Analysis to your existing models. If you can use a spreadsheet, you can use @RISK! @RISK uses a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation to allow you to take all possible outcomes into account. Simply replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet model with @RISK functions to represent a range of possible values. Select bottom-line cells, like Total Profits, as outputs, and start a simulation. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or even thousands of times, each time selecting random numbers from the @RISK functions you entered. The result: distributions of possible outcomes and the probabilities of getting those results! This not only tells you what could happen in a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen. With @RISK, you can answer questions like "What are the chances of getting a negative result?" or "What is the probability of earning profits over $500,000?" @RISK 4.5 for Excel comes in three editions - Standard, Professional, and Industrial - to allow you to select the feature set which best meets your needs. Risk Analysis Risk Analysis, in a broad sense, is any method - qualitative and/or quantitative - for assessing the impacts of risk on decisions. Myriad Risk Analysis methods are used that blend both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The goal of any of these methods is to help the decision-maker choose a course of action, given a better understanding of the possible outcomes that could occur. You might wonder if what you do would be suitable for Risk Analysis. If you use data to solve problems, make forecasts, develop strategies, or make decisions, then you definitely should consider performing Risk Analysis. @RISK lets you see all possible outcomes! Risk Analysis with @RISK Risk Analysis in @RISK is a quantitative method that seeks to determine the outcomes of a decision as a probability distribution. In general, Risk Analysis with @RISK encompasses four steps: 1. Develop a Model - First, define your problem or situation in an Excel worksheet format. 2. Identifying Uncertainty - Next, determine which inputs in your model are uncertain, and represent those using ranges of values with @RISK probability distribution functions. Identify which result or output of your model you want to analyze. 3. Analyzing the Model with Simulation - Run your simulation to determine the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes for the outputs you've identified. 4. Make a Decision - Armed with complete information from your analysis, and your personal preferences, make your decision. Step 1: Develop a Model The first step is constructing a model in your spreadsheet that represents your situation. Because you are working in a spreadsheet, you are virtually unlimited in what you can model. You might be launching a new product and want to see the potential profits, or you might want to see the potential pollution effects a new factory might have on a river. Perhaps you work in pharmaceuticals and need to analyze the effectiveness of a new drug therapy on an illness, or you are an oil executive looking to determine whether or not to drill at a new site. Whatever your situation, @RISK can help! Step 2: Define the Uncertainty Using the @RISK Model and Define Distribution Windows Next you need to represent uncertainty in your spreadsheet model. You probably base most decisions on whatever data you have on hand - historical costs, competitors' prices, vendor estimates, etc. But how often do you have full, complete information? Prices change, demand fluctuates, costs rise. By using probability distribution functions to represent a range of possible values, @RISK lets you take that uncertainty into account. Simply select a cell whose value you are unsure of and replace its value with one of the 37 @RISK probability distributions below: Beta Exponential Log-Logistic Poisson Beta General Extreme Value/Gumbel Lognormal Rayleigh Beta-Subjective Gamma Lognormal2 Student's t Binomial General Negative Binomial Triangular Chi-Square Geometric Normal Triangular General Cumulative Histogram Pareto Uniform Discrete Hypergeometric Pareto 2 Weibull Discrete Uniform Int Uniform Pearson V Error Function Inverse Gaussian/Wald Pearson VI Erlang Logistic PERT The @RISK model window lets you define your model graphically! For example, if you have a cost estimate with a most likely value of $10,000, but you know it can't go below $7,000 or higher than $15,000, you can represent that uncertainty with a Triangular distribution using the function RiskTriang(7000, 10000, 15000). All @RISK functions become true Excel functions that may be used in other function arguments or support cell references. This gives you maximum flexibility in defining your models. @RISK 4.5 for Excel makes entering your probability functions easy. Simply type them in like you would any Excel function, use the Excel Paste Function tool, or use the @RISK Define Distribution Window to enter your probability distributions graphically (see below for details). @RISK 4.5 also features a Function Wizard that tells you exactly what arguments each @RISK function requires. Once you've entered your distribution functions, select the bottom-line cell or cells whose values you are interested in (such as Total Profit) and click the Add Output button in the @RISK toolbar. This adds a RiskOutput function to the chosen cell, allowing you to name, move, and manage your outputs easily. Open the @RISK Model Window to see a clear, Explorer-style list of your inputs and outputs at a glance. You can also perform distribution fitting, correlate inputs, and open a Define Distribution Window from the @RISK Model Window. RISKview pops up right over your spreadsheet model! Visualize Your Uncertainty with RISKview™ @RISK 4.5 allows complete graphical selection of your probability distribution functions using RISKview, Palisade's distribution previewing companion. Now entering your distributions is easier than ever because you can see them, edit them, and apply them with a few clicks of the mouse. RISKview comes fully integrated with every copy of @RISK 4.5 for Excel, and appears as a convenient pop-up Define Distribution Window right over your spreadsheet. You can view graphs, parameters, and statistics of any @RISK distribution. All graphs include adjustable delimiters and probability bars for viewing calculated probabilities and other statistics directly on graphs. Simply slide the delimiter on a graph to see calculated probabilities both on the graph and in the linked statistical report. RISKview even lets you overlay graphs of different distributions for comparison, change parameters, and draw your own curves! When you draw your own curves using RISKview's Distribution Artist, RISKview can find the standard probability distribution which best fits that curve. RISKview can also directly link to any distribution in your spreadsheet model for instant updating. Defining your uncertainty couldn't be more intuitive! To further speed up the process of defining uncertainty, RISKview features a Distribution Palette of thumbnail sketches of all available distribution types. Just click the thumbnail of the distribution you want. And, you are not restricted to using standard parameters when defining your distribution functions. @RISK lets you enter in percentile parameters. For example, if you know oil field reserves are typically represented by a lognormal curve, and you know the 10th and 90th percentile values the reserves could take, you can use that information to set up your @RISK model. Fit Distributions to Data with BestFit® There may be times when you have historical data on a particular input in your model. For example, you may have price data on the material costs of a product you are going to produce. You would like to use this data to represent uncertainty in your model, but how? With BestFit, Palisade's distribution fitting tool, it's easy! BestFit is fully integrated with the Professional and Industrial versions of @RISK 4.5 for Excel. Just read your data into the @RISK Model Window, and click the Fit button. BestFit will find the distribution which best describes your data. A handy right-click command writes the newfound distribution to your spreadsheet cell. You can also link your fit to the resulting @RISK functions. If the underlying data changes, the fit automatically re-runs and updates the distribution in your model! BestFit 4.5 gives you multiple graphing options and full statistics for your fits. BestFit ranks dozens of distribution functions against your data, and provides comprehensive results. Four types of graphs are available to assess accuracy of the fit, and there are complete statistical reports and goodness-of-fit data. Choose from Comparison, Difference, Probability-Probability, or Quantile-Quantile graphs. Like RISKview, BestFit includes sliding delimiters and probability bars on all graphs. Graph types can be easily formatted be using toolbar icons or right-click menus, and may be exported to Excel in native Excel format for further modification. But it doesn't stop there. BestFit has a host of advanced features for the power user. BestFit uses three advanced fitting algorithms to optimize its fits - Chi Square, Anderson-Darling, and Komolgorov-Smirnov. You can read in data sets with up to 100,000 points, in sample, density, or cumulative format. You can fit multiple data sets in a single project, and specify which predefined distributions to fit to. BestFit allows full control over Chi-squared calculations, including equal interval binning, equal probability binning, and full custom binning. It will also perform the RMS (root mean square error) test for cumulative and density data. Step 3: Simulate and View All Possible Outcomes! Once your model is set up, click the Simulation Settings button if you want to customize the parameters of your simulation. You can specify the number of iterations (times @RISK recalculates the spreadsheet model), update the spreadsheet in real-time numerically or graphically as @RISK is simulating, control the convergence criteria, and choose Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube sampling. This gives you complete control over your simulations. Or, use the default settings and @RISK will automate everything for you. Then click the Simulate button and watch! @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or thousands of times! Each time, @RISK selects random numbers from the @RISK functions you entered and records the resulting output. Each recalculation shows a possible combination of uncertain values or a "scenario" that could occur. At the end of the simulation, you have a whole range of possible outcomes, and the probabilities of them occurring! Your spreadsheet has gone from representing one possible scenario to representing all possible scenarios! Try doing that with Excel alone. Analyze Your Results in the @RISK Results Window When your simulation is complete, all the results appear instantly in the @RISK Results Window. The Results Window, like the Model Window, features an Explorer style list of inputs and tabbed reports. Extensive graphing options, comprehensive statistics, full data, and advanced analyses like Sensitivity and Scenario analyses are available with the click of a button. The @RISK Report Window gives you countless graphing and reporting options! Dazzling Graphs One of the strengths of Monte Carlo simulation is that it produces enough data to create accurate graphs. Histograms, cumulative curves, area and line graphs, and more are available in @RISK 4.5. As in the Model Window, graphs are created with simple toolbar clicks or right-click menus. Select the type of graph, then customize it by selecting colors, changing scaling, creating new titles and axis labels, and more! Do you have a range of outputs you'd like to graph? Simply highlight the range in the Explorer list and select Summary Graph to see your risk over time. You can even overlay multiple variables on the same graph for comparison. All graphs may also be displayed in Excel format for further enhancement. These Excel format graphs recreate any @RISK graph in native Excel chart format, giving you access to all of Excel's charting capabilities. @RISK's various graphing options allow you to quickly and easily present possible outcomes for any situation to others! The @RISK Results Window gives you countless graphing and reporting options! All graphs include summary statistics in the same window for easy reference. They also include probability bars and sliding delimiters, so you can answer questions like "What are the chances of losing money on this venture?" simply by sliding a bar to the $0 mark on your cumulative curve and reading the probability result below. @RISK can also create a summary report of results using the Quick Report command. With a single click @RISK will generate a one-page, preformatted report in Excel containing a histogram, cumulative curve, Tornado graph, and summary statistics - all set up and ready to print! This saves valuable time by doing the formatting for you. Want to see how your graph changes as the simulation runs? @RISK 4.5 will display and update any graph in real-time while your simulation is running. You can start, stop, and control the frequency of updates. Identify Critical Factors with Sensitivity and Scenario Analyses @RISK performs two additional analyses that identify your risk factors: Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis, both accessible by clicking their tabs in the Results Window. Sensitivity Analysis determines which input distributions have the biggest impact on the outputs. The results can be displayed as an easy-to-interpret Tornado chart, with longer bars at the top representing the most significant input variables. You can choose from Rank-Order Correlation or Multi-variate Stepwise Regression to perform Sensitivity Analysis. Sensitivity Analysis allows you to zero in on the factors in your model which contribute the most to your risk! Scenario Analysis identifies combinations of inputs - or scenarios - which lead to output target values. This lets you make such crucial observations as "When profit is high, operating cost is low, sales price is high, and cost of market entry is low." Accurate Statistics and Data Click the Detailed Statistics button to see statistics for all outputs displayed in a spreadsheet-like format for easy viewing. All the complete statistics you would expect are here. You can also enter target values and find the likelihood of achieving them, similar to using the sliding delimiters on the graphs. Another click and you can see all data for inputs and outputs for every iteration of the simulation. You can cut and paste data and statistics to other applications, or have @RISK generate a full statistical or data report in your spreadsheet for further analysis. @RISK allows full access to the information of your simulation! Customizable Reports The best analysis always has to be presented to others. To help with this, @RISK provides extensive capabilities for reporting on both your model and simulation results. To start, any @RISK graph or report can be pasted into Excel or other applications. In addition, @RISK 4.5 comes with a report generator that will quickly create a report with graphs and statistics on your simulation. Lastly, @RISK 4.5's report template feature allows you to build custom reports in Excel that contain just the statistics and graphs you want, plus any custom formatting, logos, and more. Your template will be used to create a polished report from each simulation you run. Step 4: Make a Decision Using @RISK's comprehensive results and your own personal thresholds for risk, you are now ready to make a well-informed decision. By accounting for all possible outcomes, @RISK gives you the tools to make the best possible decision in any situation! Advanced Features Make @RISK a True Powerhouse @RISK comes with a number of advanced features that make it the only choice for top decision-makers world wide. Multiple Simulations @RISK features the RiskSimTable function, which allows multiple simulations to be run back-to-back. This lets you change only select inputs in your model from simulation to simulation, so you can compare the effect of a variable or variables on your outcome. For example, you may with to see what impact charging different prices has on your profits. You can even graph the results from multiple simulations on one chart! Correlate your inputs in the @RISK Model Window. Correlate Your Inputs for More Accurate Models In real life, inputs are seldom independent. When interest rates are high, mortgages are low, for example. If you don't take these relationships into account when building your model, you risk dangerously inaccurate results. The @RISK Model Window provides an easy way to correlate inputs in your model using a simple matrix format. Click a button to get a blank matrix, then drag inputs onto it from the Explorer list. Enter in correlation coefficients, click Apply, and the correlations are automatically written to your spreadsheet model. Statistics and Graphing Functions @RISK 4.5 for Excel adds a set of statistics functions that return a desired statistic on simulation results anywhere in your spreadsheet. These functions include all standard statistics plus percentiles and target probabilities, and can be used just like any other Excel or @RISK function. You can watch the statistics update real-time as the simulation runs, as well! The statistics described by these functions are: Kurtosis Min Range Target Value Max Mode Skewness Variance Mean Percentile Standard Deviation @RISK 4.5 also includes a powerful graph placement function that places any graph of simulation results directly in your spreadsheet. Place this new RiskResultsGraph function anywhere in your spreadsheet and automatically, after a simulation, the desired graph will be appear directly in Excel. As with all @RISK graphs, you can choose to generate a graph in metafile or standard Excel chart format. Enhanced VBA Support for Custom Applications @RISK 4.5 lets you write your own custom applications in Excel that can perform virtually any @RISK function. Harness the power of @RISK's Monte Carlo simulation engine for your company's specific needs. Utilize @RISK's extensive reporting options, Sensitivity analysis, Scenario analysis, distribution fitting, and more, all in your own custom Excel program! Example files are included demonstrating how to use these commands. Plus, you can run macros before, during, or after a simulation run. Click here for more information about @RISK VBA macro functions. @RISK Professional @RISK 4.5 is available in three editions to meet your risk analysis needs: Standard, Professional, and Industrial. @RISK Professional adds a host of analytical power features to your arsenal. Integrated BestFit Fit distributions to your data. See above. @RISK Goal Seek @RISK Goal Seek lets you find the value of an input that leads to a desired simulation result. You set the target value or the goal - say, a simulated mean of $1000 - and then tell Goal Seek which input to adjust in order to achieve your goal. Goal Seek will then use multiple simulations - not deterministic spreadsheet recalculations like Excel's Goal Seek - to find the input value that achieves the goal. This lets you take all possible outcomes into account when determining input values that achieve your goals! Stress Analysis @RISK lets you control the range that is sampled within an input distribution; that is, you can stress the distributions. By specifying extreme ranges of a give input, you can see how different situations would affect your bottom line. Instantly test various scenarios without changing your model! Results include Box-Whisker plots, comparison graphs, cumulative charts and histograms. See the effects of multiple inputs with Advanced Sensitivity Analysis. Advanced Sensitivity Analysis @RISK 4.5 lets you see how changes in input values affect your simulated results. With Advanced Sensitivity Analysis, inputs can be any value or distribution in your model. Using a wide variety of options, you can control how these inputs are varied. @RISK then runs any number of simulations (hundreds or thousands if necessary!) - one at each possible input value - and tracks how your output statistics change. Results graphs include Box-Whisker plots, Spider graphs, cumulative curves, line graphs and Tornado charts to show you the critical factors in your model. @RISK Industrial @RISK 4.5 Industrial is well-suited to the power risk analyst. @RISK Industrial builds upon @RISK Professional by adding: RISKOptimizer to Optimize Your Simulation Results @RISK 4.5 Industrial for Excel comes with RISKOptimizer, the simulation optimization add-in for Excel. RISKOptimizer is an innovative tool which allows you to optimize the results of an @RISK simulation, finding the best combination of inputs to maximize or minimize your bottom line. @RISK alone uses Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in models and view the probabilities of various outcomes occurring. But Monte Carlo simulation cannot deal with input or decision variables whose values you can control. It views all possible outcomes at a single state of those controllable variables. RISKOptimizer combines simulation with optimization to solve the most complex problems. RISKOptimizer changes all that. With RISKOptimizer, many different combinations of controllable inputs (called adjustable cells) are tried in order to maximize or minimize your output. This process of trying different inputs is called optimization. But unlike other optimizers, RISKOptimizer performs Monte Carlo simulation while it is optimizing, allowing uncertainty to be taken into account. For each different combination of inputs - or trial solution - RISKOptimizer runs a Monte Carlo simulation. In this way, RISKOptimizer looks at all possible outcomes in many different states. This is an extremely powerful technique that can solve problems not previously solvable by traditional linear or nonlinear optimization packages. For example, say you run an @RISK simulation on a potential product launch to see the range of possible outcomes for profit. But your model is based on using specific vendors to supply the raw materials for your product. There may be other vendors who can offer cheaper materials, quicker turnaround, or more attractive shipping. With @RISK alone, you could run multiple simulations for different vendors, but did you try every possible combination of inputs? RISKOptimizer will try many different combinations until it maximizes the simulation results for profit. RISKOptimizer uses the same genetic-algorithm based optimization engine as Evolver. With genetic algorithms, favorable trial solutions are combined to produce more and more effective "offspring" solutions. "Mutations," or randomly generated new trial solutions, occur to make sure that all possible solutions are explored. In this way, RISKOptimizer achieves true "global," or overall, solutions and avoids settling on a less effective "local" solution as many traditional hill-climbing optimizers do. @RISKAccelerator for Your Largest Simulations Speed up large simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-CPU machine. If your PC has two processors, your simulations will run nearly twice as fast! With integrated @RISKAccelerator, @RISK Industrial lets you take full advantage of the additional processing speed available with increasingly popular multi-processor machines. Using innovative parallel-processing technology, @RISKAccelerator "splits up" a simulation for available CPUs to work on simultaneously. @RISKAccelerator is invaluable for users with large, complex models or users who run simulations frequently. For example, in the securities industry, the risk and return of portfolios comprised of thousands of stocks - each with a different possible future price path - are often calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. This is a lengthy simulation that is constantly re-run as market conditions, current prices, and portfolio components change. Also available separately, @RISKAccelerator can be configured to utilize available CPUs over a network. Choose the @RISK Edition to Suit Your Needs! @RISK 4.5 STANDARD @RISK 4.5 PROFESSIONAL @RISK 4.5 INDUSTRIAL Advanced simulation engine x x x 37 distribution functions x x x Correlation of inputs x x x Variety of graphs x x x Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis x x x Integrated RISKview x x x Integrated BestFit x x @RISK Goal Seek x x Stress Analysis x x Advanced Sensitivity Analysis x x Integrated @RISKAccelerator x RISKOptimizer x @RISK APPLICATIONS Capital Budgeting Insurance Chemical Process Engineering Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Planning Mortgage Pricing Cost Analysis Operation Research Analysis Engineering Petroleum and Mining Resource Evaluations Environmental Impacts & Policy Retirement Planning Financial Risk Analysis R&D Assessment Foreign Exchange Assessment Toxicological Analysis Health Risk Assessment And More! Become an @RISK Wizard! @RISK comes with a wide variety of resources to help you get started and overcome problems. A comprehensive audio/visual tutorial walks you through the features of @RISK and demonstrates how to set up and run a model, step-by-step. The @RISK manual is written in straightforward, plain English and even provides background information on Risk Analysis. The entire manual is also available electronically in @RISK's Help menu. @RISK features a comprehensive, context-sensitive Help file to zero in your question. You can search on a particular topic, or simply ask a plain English question using the "How Do I..." feature! Finally, example files are provided that can be used as templates for building your own model. Palisade also offers a multimedia training CD-ROM by author Wayne Winston. Introduction to Financial Modeling with @RISK features Wayne Winston walking you through a range of financial models step-by-step. It's like having your own personal tutor! If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of books on how to get the most from @RISK (see below). Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I and II and Simulation Modeling Using @RISK, both by Wayne Winston, are among the most popular. We also offer Software Training Seminars on @RISK throughout North America and Europe. These seminars provide hands-on training on how to use @RISK, and teach valuable model-building techniques. Call or visit our web site at www.palisade.com for more details and the latest schedule. In addition, Palisade offers on-site training services, customizable to meet your organization's needs. @RISK 4.5 Features True Spreadsheet Add-In Full Data Report Tornado Graphs Toolbars for Most Commands Reporting in Excel Scenario Analysis Office-style Interface Target Values Statistics Functions @RISK Model Window Histogram, Area, Line, and Cumulative Graphs Macros - Execute During Simulation 37 Distribution Functions Fully Customizable Graphs Macros - Customize with VBA Fully Integrated RISKview Summary Graphs @RISK Goal Seek (Pro and Industrial only) Fully Integrated BestFit (Professional and Industrial versions only) Multiple Summary and Overlay Graphs Stress Analysis (Pro and Industrial only) Distribution Palette Sliding Delimiters on all Graphs Advanced Sensitivity Analysis (Pro and Industrial) Alternate (Percentile) Distribution Parameters Real-time Updating of Graphs Comprehensive Help File and Tutorial Correlation of Inputs Graph in Excel Integrated RISKOptimizer (Industrial only) Customizable Simulation Settings One-step Quick Reports Integrated @RISKAccelerator (Industrial only) Convergence Monitoring Multiple Simulations Fully Integrated With DecisionTools Suite: @RISK, BestFit, TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKview Full Statistics Report Sensitivity Analysis - Multivariate Stepwise Regression and Rank Order Correlation International Versions Available! @RISK is also available with French, German, or Spanish users manuals. These clearly-written guides contain how-to instructions, examples, discussions, and reference sections of all menu commands, toolbars, functions, and macro commands. All the great features of version 4.5 are more accessible than ever with these native-language manuals! Add @RISK To Your Custom Applications with the @RISK Developers Kit (RDK)! The @RISK Developers Kit (RDK) 4.0 can be used to create custom applications that include the Risk Analysis capabilities of @RISK as well as the distribution fitting features of BestFit. All the great features of @RISK - the Monte Carlo simulation engine, graphs, reports, even the interface - is at your disposal. Applications include financial modeling tools, corporate financial systems, energy/utility simulators, and much more. These applications may be run in desktop, network, or web environment. All users need to run your web RDK models is an internet connection and a web browser. An ActiveX/COM interface adds an intuitive set of methods and properties to allow you to quickly set up a simulation model in your application. For more information and on-line sample applications, visit www.edecisiontools.com. Use @RISK with the DecisionTools® Suite @RISK was designed to work with our other DecisionTools Suite products - TopRank®, RISKview, BestFit and PrecisionTree®. Start by using TopRank, the What-If Analysis add-in for Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 for Windows, to identify the critical values in your model. Next, in @RISK, replace those values with @RISK probability distribution functions. Use RISKview to preview these distributions or create one by simply drawing it and placing it directly in @RISK. Take real-world data and use BestFit to find the distribution which best fits your data, and use that function in @RISK to realistically represent uncertainty. Then run a thorough Monte Carlo simulation and analyze the results! Create a decision tree with PrecisionTree to accurately describe a decision, and use @RISK to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on your decision tree! With the DecisionTools Suite, you will be prepared to face the risks in any situation! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: If you wish to upgrade to @RISK 4.5 from a version of @RISK not listed on this order form, please contact our Sales Department at 800-432-7475, 607-277-8000, or [email protected]. Software Recommendations Minimum Platform: IBM PC compatible Pentium-equivalent or higher, 16MB RAM, Windows 95/98, NT 4.0, Windows 2000, Windows XP Recommended Platform: 32 MB RAM, or greater Spreadsheet: Windows Excel 97, Excel 2000, Excel XP Technical Support: Available through maintenance plan Other Versions Available: @RISK Developer's Kit, @RISKAccelerator, @RISK for Microsoft Project International Versions: All of the above are available with the @RISK manual in French, German, and Spanish instead of the English manual at no extra charge. Click here for more information about International manuals. Demo: Web download and free demo CD with trial version available. Training: Available through Palisade's Software Training Courses. Recommended Books: Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I and II; Simulation Modeling Using @RISK; Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide; Simulation Modeling & Analysis; Practical Management Science; Decisions Involving Uncertainty: An @RISK Guide for the Petroleum Industry; Statistical Distributions; Business Modelling and Simulation; and more! Also Available: Introduction to Financial Modeling with @RISK: A Training CD by Wayne Winston
Overview

The Future in Your Spreadsheet

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK®, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values.  Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.

» @RISK in project management
» @RISK in Six Sigma

@RISK videos

@RISK is also available in SpanishPortugueseGermanFrenchRussianJapanese, and Chinese.

Three Editions to Meet Your Needs
@RISKIndustrialProStandard
 
Advanced Simulation Engine
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
Over 50 Built-in Distribution Functions
Integrated Distribution Gallery
Insert Function Command
@RISK Function Swap
Thumbnail Graphs
Compound and Six Sigma functions
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
Customized Excel Reports
Live Updating During Simulation
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Correlation of Inputs
Copulas
Freehand Distribution Artist
@RISK Data Viewer
Integrated Distribution Fitting  
Integration with Microsoft Project  
@RISK Library  
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)  
Stress Analysis  
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis  
@RISK Goal Seek  
Full Multi-CPU Support    
Simulation of Time-series Forecasts    
RISKOptimizer    

Optimization under uncertainty

   

Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints

   

Genetic algorithms

   

Six solving methods, including GAs and OptQuest

   

Efficient Frontier Analysis

   

RISKOptimizer Watcher

   

Convergence monitoring and genetic operators

   

Original, Best, Last model updating

   

 

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Swancor Renewable Energy Co., Ltd. Project Management
CTBC BUSINESS SCHOOL
Chinese Culture University Department of International Trading
Chinese Culture University Department of Geography
Chinese Culture University Department of Architecture & Urban Design
China Medical University Department of Occupational Safety and Health
National Changhua University of Education Department of Mathematics
National Cheng Kung University Department of Food Safety / Hygiene and Risk Management
National Taiwan University Department of Accounting
National Taiwan University of Science and Technology Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University (Taipei Campus) Department of Transportation & Logistics Management
National Yunlin University of Science & Technology Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
National Kaohsiung Normal University Department of Agribusiness Administration
Da-Yeh University Department of Business Administration
Procter & Gamble Taiwan,Ltd.
Procter & Gamble Taiwan,Ltd. Finance Department
Industrial Technology Research Institute Green Energy & Environment Research Laboratories
Fu Jen Catholic University Department of Finance and International Business
Chang Jung Christian University Department of Land Management and Development